Session 2 - Decision-making & bias

Do you fall into the bias trap?

The following examples, from Daniel Kahneman’s book ‘Thinking Fast and Slow’, demonstrate some common biases in our day-to-day thinking. See how you go!
Question: As shown in the figure, which person is larger – the one on the left or the one on the right?
Answer: Most people would quickly say, the man on the right. Your perceptual system immediately sees this as a 3-D scene, and you will think the man on the right is further away and larger. The 3-D impression is overwhelming for most people. But all three men are actually the same size. Your perceptual system automatically biases what you see.

Question: What do you think of Alan and Ben?

Alan: intelligent – industrious – impulsive – critical – stubborn – envious

Ben: envious – stubborn – critical – impulsive – industrious – intelligent

Answer: Most people will think more positively about Alan than Ben, even though both men have the same personality traits.

The sequence in which you see the characteristics of a person usually occurs by chance. But the sequence matters. We tend to put more weight on first impressions, sometimes even ignoring new information that might be more important.

Question: Is this a valid argument?

All roses are flowers. Some flowers fade quickly. Therefore some roses fade quickly.

Answer: Most people read this and will quickly agree that this is a valid argument.

But when you think about it a bit more, the argument is flawed. You don’t know if roses are in the group that fades quickly. But it seems like a logical answer, so most will jump to say that this conclusion is true. 

How did you go?

These are common cognitive biases.
If you made mistakes, you are not alone.
Most people do exactly the same.

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