Session 2 - Decision-making & bias

Do you fall into the bias trap?

The following examples, from Daniel Kahneman’s book ‘Thinking Fast and Slow’, demonstrate some common biases in our day-to-day thinking. See how you go!
Question: As shown in the figure, which person is larger – the one on the left or the one on the right?
Answer: Most people would quickly say, the man on the right. Your perceptual system immediately sees this as a 3-D scene, and you will think the man on the right is further away and larger. The 3-D impression is overwhelming for most people. But all three men are actually the same size. Your perceptual system automatically biases what you see.

Question: What do you think of Alan and Ben?

Alan: intelligent – industrious – impulsive – critical – stubborn – envious

Ben: envious – stubborn – critical – impulsive – industrious – intelligent

Answer: Most people will think more positively about Alan than Ben, even though both men have the same personality traits.

The sequence in which you see the characteristics of a person usually occurs by chance. But the sequence matters. We tend to put more weight on first impressions, sometimes even ignoring new information that might be more important.

Question: Is this a valid argument?

All roses are flowers. Some flowers fade quickly. Therefore some roses fade quickly.

Answer: Most people read this and will quickly agree that this is a valid argument.

But when you think about it a bit more, the argument is flawed. You don’t know if roses are in the group that fades quickly. But it seems like a logical answer, so most will jump to say that this conclusion is true. 

Hand making a thumbs-up gesture, symbolising approval or positivity.

How did you go?

These are common cognitive biases.
If you made mistakes, you are not alone.
Most people do exactly the same.

Hand making a thumbs-down gesture. Represents disapproval or negativity.

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